Market Watch – CNY Edition

14 February 2021

  • BTC bulls eye $50,000+ as data show Bitcoin liquidity supply
  • Speculation from crypto analysts and industry experts suggests that Bitcoin’s long term value could reach over $100,000 to as much as one million dollars per BTC in the future.
  • Morgan Stanley to consider Bitcoin for $150 billion investment wing
  • Ethereum significantly outperformed bitcoin for January (+77%) on anticipation of an upcoming listing on the US Chicago futures market and DeFi growth
  • Polkadot has been one of the best performing crypto assets of late and recently moved into the top-5 crypto assets in total market value at ~$20b at present
  • PayPal announced that it plans to extend itscrypto services to residents of the United Kingdom.

Bitcoin and Ethereum make new all-time highs while traditional markets wobble

In January crypto continued its strong Q4 2020 momentum with bitcoin setting a new all-time high at just under $49404 on Valentine’s Day, a whisker away from $50K! Ethereum (ETH) had an even more impressive run in 2021 to today at +146%. Both are up around 1,000% over the last two years with Ethereum now outperforming Bitcoin over that time period.

Over the last week a torrent of enthusiasm has broken down the floodgates keeping Bitcoin out of ‘the system’ in the West. Tesla,  Mastercard and Visa are all welcoming Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies (though central banks still insist it’s not cool), as well as leading mainstream culture magazines, making it clear that we’ve started that stage of the current bull run- where everyone wants to join the party.

Institutional investors rapidly gobbling up Bitcoin, and at the time of writing, nearly 3% of BTC in circulation are locked up in long-term holdings by these investors.

Data shows that 24 entities have amassed more than 460,500 BTC, which is equivalent to $22 billion at Bitcoin’s current price. The current list of holders includes MtGox, which has close to 141,690 BTC ($6.6 billion). Next is Block.one with an estimated 140,000 BTC $6.5 billion). MicroStrategy also has about 71,000 BTC ( $3.3 billion) and this week Tesla bought 38,500 BTC (about $1.8 billion).

Analysts now expect that holding Bitcoin in treasury will soon become a corporate standard as there are multiple technical reasons for viewing Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

Considering that over 60% of the Bitcoin supply hasn’t moved in more than a year, a $300 billion inflow is nearly unimaginable for an asset with a $355 billion free float. 

Moreover, newly minted BTC by miners adds up to 341,640 annually, a mere $16.3 billion. Therefore it is safe to conclude that the steady allocation of BTC to corporate treasuries could more than double the current price of Bitcoin.

Traditional markets

Global stocks began the week with gains amid signs that reflation trade has further to run  as the pace of coronavirus outbreaks began to slow. WTI crude breached $60 dollars a barrel as an arctic freeze gripped parts of the U.S.

South Korean and Japanese shares led Asia higher, with the Nikkei 225 hitting 30,000 for the first time since 1990. Data showed Japan’s economy grew by double-digits last quarter, beating expectations. S&P 500 and European futures pointed to gains. U.S. markets are shut for Presidents’ Day, while exchanges in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are also closed on Monday. The dollar retreated.

Australian bonds slumped after U.S. yields jumped Friday. Treasury futures dipped in Asia trading. The pound jumped to the highest since April 2018. 

Investors are banking on U.S. government spending and the coronavirus vaccine rollout to boost the economic recovery, though new variants are threatening to temper the outlook.

Countries easing restrictions include Malaysia, which will allow national football and hockey leagues to start training. Hong Kong will permit restaurant dining and relax other social-distancing rules after the lunar new year holidays. New U.S. cases declined to the lowest week-to-week average since late October.

SPECIAL EDITORIAL

Bitcoin is a decentralized financial technology that could 

replace fiat currencies, price predictions from experts reach as much as $1M.

Experts Share Their Thoughts on Bitcoin Future

Max Keiser, Financial Analyst and Host of The Keiser Report

Robert Kiyosaki, Entrepreneur, Investors, and Best-Selling Author

Keiser is one of Bitcoin’s most outspoken bull, calling for $100,000 since the asset was trading at just $1. His new $100,000 target though is for the end of 2020, meanwhile, $400,000 is a long-term goal due to the coronavirus and a comparison to gold

Kiyosaki, New York Times bestselling author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” has been recommending his followers to buy Bitcoin and. He projects gold to reach $3,000 an ounce, and Bitcoin to reach $75,000 within the next three years.

Adam Back, Bitcoin Developer and CEO at Blockstream

“BTC might not require additional institutional adoption to reach $300,000 because the current economics and state of society is causing more individuals to think about hedging and retaining value when there’s a lot of money printing in the world,” Back told Bloomberg.

Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow Model Based on Scarcity

The popular Stock-to-Flow model created by Bitcoin expert Plan B which uses the asset’s digital scarcity to estimate price valuations in the future. The model shows Bitcoin reaching as high as $288,000 in the next cycle peak, which should take place over the next couple of years.

Technical Analysis and Forecast on BTC

Crypto analysts often perform technical analysis to predict price movements over time. Here are some of the best technical analysis from the industry’s best analysts in order to further help understand how high Bitcoin can go.

2021 – The cryptocurrency is breaking out into a new bull run and has gone parabolic. Prices could reach $100,000 to $325,000 this year.

2022 – 2023  Following a similar trajectory as the last cycle, Bitcoin would top out around $325,000 then could drop to where the asset is consolidating at currently around $35,000.

2024 -2025  And just like a new bull market started and the bubble pattern began again right after each hard-coded halving, another one is due towards the end of 2024 and into 2025, giving Bitcoin a unique four-year market cycle.

The below prediction chart outlines some of the minimum and maximum BTC price forecasts offered by technical analysts and industry experts in an easy to digest format.

YearHighLow
2021$325,000$17,000
2022$275,000$42,000
2023$145,000$63,000
2024-2025+$1,000,000$275,000

Philip Tam

Co-founder

Sources/Reference

coindesk, CoinMarketCap, Coincodex, Cointelegraph, PRIME XBT

Bloomberg

Market Watch – 16 November 2020

  • Bitcoin is surging past the $18,000 level, approaching record level prices. representing a 150% year-to-date gain, according to The CoinDesk 20.
  • Citibank analyst seemingly predicts $318K Bitcoin price for 2021
  • Grayscale survey connects COVID-19 pandemic to new Bitcoin purchases

Citibank analyst seemingly predicts $318K Bitcoin price for 2021

A recent Bitcoin (BTC) technical analysis reportedly prepared by CitiFX for its institutional clients points to a potential high of $318,000 sometime in December 2021.

In a supposed note to clients seen by Twitter commentator Alex on Nov. 14,  Citibank managing director Tom Fitzpatrick looks at the long-term trend of Bitcoin price, characterized as it has been by “unthinkable rallies followed by painful corrections.”

Notably, the three major bullish periods of BTC so far have been increasing in length. Initially, there was a 10-month run from 2010–2011, followed by a two-year run from 2011–2013, and finally a three-year run covering 2015–2017.

This analyst called Bitcoin’s new price high in 2020 three months ago 

As noted by consumer investment service Swan Bitcoin on Nov. 18, the co-founder of The Investor’s Podcast Network, Preston Pysh, predicted 90% end-of-year returns for BTC/USD when the pair traded at $11,400.

Pysh: 2020 gains could be “insane”

“You should be making a new all-time high by Christmas 2020. That means we’ve got 80–90% upside from here, which is insane, right because there’s not that many more months between now and Christmas,” Pysh said during an episode of the company’s Swan Signal podcast.

He added that gold would fail to match “anything like” Bitcoin’s growth, something that has since come true as the precious metal flagged following the United States persidential elections.

Grayscale survey connects COVID-19 pandemic to new Bitcoin purchases

As Bitcoin price rises toward $18,000 and traders attempt to secure a new all-time high, the surge of institutional investors jumping on the Bitcoin (BTC) bandwagon continues.

According to research from Grayscale Investments, a digital asset management company that currently holds over $9.8 billion in assets under management, the coronavirus pandemic may be a primary driver of Bitcoin’s current rally. 

According to the company’s yearly survey, 83% of all Bitcoin investors started in the last 12 months, a time when COVID-19 infections were minimal.

38% of all current Bitcoin investors interviewed joined in the last four months, and among these, 63% say that the economic disruption caused by COVID-19 positively influenced their decision to purchase BTC.

Traditional markets

S&P 500 Record High. Stocks followed an uneven path to mostly positive returns for the week, although the S&P 500’s overall gain paled in comparison with the prior week’s 7% surge. The index finished the latest week at a record high—up more than 2% after posting strong gains on Monday and Friday but a steep decline on Thursday. 

COVID Factor. The coronavirus pandemic continued to be a big force driving financial markets, with a spike in new cases in the United States and many other countries offset by optimism about vaccine development. On Monday, the release of positive test data for one vaccine candidate was a key catalyst in a rally that sent the Dow 3% higher.

Oil Recovery. The price of U.S. crude oil jumped about 7%, moving back above $40 per barrel. The price was up about 16% from a recent low on November 1. However, the price weakened on Friday amid concern that the recent spike in coronavirus cases could trigger further travel restrictions, depressing demand for fuel.

Lagarde hints at more stimulus. President Christine Lagarde signaled that the central bank would expand its pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP), which has bought more than EUR 640 billion of bonds, and its targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs), which have lent almost EUR 1.5 trillion to banks at accommodating rates, by year-end.

UK economic growth slows.  The UK economy grew by a slower-than-expected 1.1% in September, month-over-month data showed. Gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded 15.5% in the third quarter—a quarterly record—but failed to fully offset the almost 20% slump that occurred between April and June.

China Antitrust against Internet Giants.  Chinese equity investors received unwelcome news after the government released a draft of antitrust guidelines aimed at curbing the power of the country’s leading internet-based platforms. The proposed antitrust laws from the State Administration for Market Regulation were the second recent setback for China’s top internet companies after financial regulators abruptly pulled the initial public offering of fintech company Ant Group on November 3.

Philip Tam

Co-founder & CEO

Sources/Reference

OSL, coindesk, CoinMarketCap, Coincodex, Cointelegraph

John Hancock Investment, Bloomberg

Market Watch – 16 October 2020

  • BTC broke above the 11,500 resistance after moving up $81 overnight from its range-bound  territory for the past four days.
  • ETH trading $10 above 10D SMA currently (380 vs 370
  • Suspension of Digital Assets/Cryptos withdrawal at OKEx

Bitcoin Price Is Stagnant Despite Recent News: The Calm Before The Storm?

Bitcoin (BTC) bounced off the $11,178 support on Oct. 15 but the bulls could not sustain the price above $11,500. This weakness could have attracted profit booking by the short-term traders and shorting by the aggressive bears. 

The increasing volumes of crypto derivative products highlight greater participation from institutional investors and this will likely be positive for the entire crypto space. 

In a separate attempt to determine the valuation of Bitcoin, several experts from JPMorgan Chase opined that Bitcoin’s price is overvalued compared to its intrinsic value and the analysts suggested that BTC could face selling in the short-term.

The bears are currently attempting to sustain Ether (ETH) below the moving averages. If they succeed, a drop to the uptrend line is possible. If this support also cracks, it will indicate a range-bound action for the biggest altcoin for a few more days.

Bitcoin and Ether now account for 44% of the value locked in DeFi

The recent explosive growth of decentralized finance has seen the sector lock nearly $4 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) in less than five months.

According to DeFi Pulse, the number of Ether locked up in DeFi protocols increased 218.5% since June, growing from 2.7 million ETH to 8.6 million ETH. Locked Bitcoin has grown more than 3,000%, from 5,000 BTC in mid-2020 to roughly 158,800 BTC today.

OKEx Cryptocurrency Exchange Suspends Withdrawals

The OKEx cryptocurrency exchange suspended withdrawals at 11:00 UTC Hong Kong time (3:00 AM UTC). In an announcement, the exchange says that it has been “out of touch” one of its private key holders due to “investigations” conducted by a “public security bureau”:

OKEx’s issues seem to have had a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market, BTC is down 0.7% on the day, while ETH dropped by 2.5% in the last 24 hours.

Traditional markets: 

Uphill Struggle.  The major U.S. stock indexes climbed for the third week in a row, but at a far slower pace than in the previous two weeks, as the indexes’ weekly gains were less than 1%. Performance was choppy, as a big rally on Monday was offset by a comparably sized decline the next day.

Brexit in Jeopardy. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday that the United Kingdom will prepare to leave the European Union’s single market at year end without a Brexit trade agreement in place. Continued uncertainty over terms of the U.K divorce from the EU weighed on European stocks throughout the week, as did rising coronavirus cases.

Coronavirus Worries. Investors appeared concerned by the continued rise in cases in the U.S. and Europe, and Wednesday brought news of pauses in trials of both Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine and Eli Lilly’s antibody treatment due to possible adverse reactions. 

European recovery faces “tougher phase” Per ECV’s Lane. Although the pickup in business activity would continue in the fourth quarter and next year, much would depend on the extent of localized lockdowns. He played down expectations for fresh stimulus as soon as next month, saying policymakers will wait for information on 2021 budgets, the exchange rate, and oil prices, among other factors, before deciding on a policy response. 

Internet behemoths face tougher EU rules.  The EU is drawing up a “hit list” of up to 20 big internet companies that would face tougher rules aimed at curbing their market power, the Financial Times reported. The targeted companies would have to comply with new rules forcing them to share data with competitors and to be more transparent on how they gather information. 

China Trade Data Underscore Recovery.  China’s exports last month beat market forecasts and grew for the fourth straight month, jumping 9.9% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, according to preliminary official data. The International Monetary Fund raised its full-year gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for China to 1.9%, up from its June forecast of 1.0%, in its October World Economic Outlook.

Philip Tam

Co-founder & CEO

Sources/Reference

OSL, coindesk, CoinMarketCap, Coincodex, Cointelegraph

John Hancock Investment, Bloomberg

市埸觀察 – 3日 10月 2020年

  • 比特幣在過去一周的負面消息中對市場舉足輕重 
  • 山寨幣上下振盪
  • 穩定幣增長約10倍達到200億美元  

在穩定幣持續取得信任時,比特幣在過去一周的負面消息中對市場舉足輕重

比特幣在幾個小時內從10900美元跌至10450美元左右。下跌來源於以下消息的傳出,美國CFTC指控大型加密貨幣衍生品交易所的所有者BitMEX,指其非法操作平台和違反反洗錢規定。

受外部市場連鎖反應的影響。美國總統 Donald Trump 在推特上發布他與妻子 Melania Trump COVID-19測試呈陽性,影響到大部份市場。雖然受此消息影響下跌不太歷害,但比特幣仍跌致低部的$10,400。

加密貨幣市場現在巳經成熟到一定情度,負面新聞巳經不至於像數字貨幣早期那樣受投資者關注。

在未來的幾個小時,主要的數字貨幣將逐步恢復到正常價格。比特幣價格將加速上升至$10500美元,回復到原來的水平,到發稿時達到$10,550。

振蕩的山寨幣

山寨幣也受到了上述的不利影響,價格出現了明顯的下跌。 Ripple 保持了與上一日大致的價格水平,交易價格大致在 $0.23。但是 , Polkadot幣 (-2.5%), Chainlink 幣(-1.5%), Crypto.com幣 (-0.5%), and BSV (-1.5%) 等位於跌幅前十。

Binance幣是市場的唯一例外。 BNB 比昨日上漲了 2.5% 達到接近$28。

DFI.Money (YFII) 從重高市值下跌 – 10%。 Uniswap官方發行的 UNI 緊跟跌 -9%。

穩定幣增長約10倍達到200億美元

以太幣作為市場上第二大的數字貨幣, 於上週五跌至 $344 ,24小時內下跌- 2% 。

穩定幣市場總值從2019年的 $26 億到 2020年9月達到$200億。 USDT (Tether) 以$160億引領,第二的USDC為 $25 億,緊隨的 TUSD 為 $5.07 億。

傳統金融交易市場情況:

  • 失望的九月. S&P 500 上月跌幅為3.9%,是5個月以來的連續下降。在9月份,能源需求為最弱的領域 ,下降14.6%; 鋼鐵需求為最強的領域,增長1.1%。
  • 回歸正常. 美國主要交易所指數升 1% to 2%, 停止了四個星期以來的下跌。在上週五結束時 ,標準普爾 500從9月早期錄得有記錄的高位跌 6% , 納斯達克指數跌8%, 杜瓊斯指數跌4%。
  • 新冠病毒情況 . 美國眾議院週四險些通過民主黨提案的2.2萬億美元的新冠病毒救助計劃 。但是,提案未能獲得眾議院共和黨的支持退回,共和黨未來的態度將是不確定的因素。
  • 油價下滑. 由於美國原油價格本週下跌8%,上週五為每桶$37美元,近期原油價格小幅上漲後停滯不前。運輸燃料作為最近影響油價的關鍵因素,由於需求疲軟,給油價上升帶來了壓力。
  • 過去6個月的回報. 從4月份到9月份,納斯達克指數的回報是自2000年以來最好的2個季度, 標普500指數是自2009年以來最好的季度.納斯達克回報率為45% ,超過今年前6個月的情況, 標普500 超過26%。
  • 結算憂慮. 隨著結算季節的臨近,盈利期望低下,但不會像前幾週預測的那麼低。平均而言,分析師預計標普500指數公司的與一年同期相比第三季度利潤將下降21%;而在9月份早期時的預測是下降22%。

Philip Tam

Co-founder & CEO

Sources/Reference

OSL, coindesk, CoinMarketCap, Coincodex, Cointelegraph

John Hancock Investment, Bloomberg

Market Watch – 3 October 2020

  • Bitcoin has held up in week of flurry negative news 
  • Altcoins Struggle
  • Stablecoins grew almost 10X to $20 billion

Bitcoin has held up in week of negative news while stablecoin continue to gain momentum.

Bitcoin tumbled from $10,900 to about $10,450 in a matter of hours. The drop came after news broke that the US CFTC charged the owners of the large cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX for illegally operating the platform and anti-money laundering violations.

The ripple effects hit most markets. US President Donald Trump said on Twitter that he and his wife Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19. Although the price dip this time was not that vigorous, BTC still bottomed beneath $10,400.

The cryptocurrency markets have matured to the extent that negative news no longer provokes wild price swings like they once did in crypto’s early days.

In the following hours, the primary cryptocurrency started its gradual recovery. Bitcoin price accelerated towards $10,500 and even broke above it. As of now, BTC trades at just shy $10,550.

Altcoins Struggle

The altcoins also felt the adverse impact mentioned above with some notable price dips. Ripple has also stayed at a similar level as yesterday and trades above $0.23. However, Polkadot (-2.5%), Chainlink (-1.5%), Crypto.com Coin (-0.5%), and Bitcoin SV (-1.5%) are all in the red from the top 10.

The only exception comes from Binance Coin. BNB has jumped by 2.5% since yesterday and nears $28. 

DFI.Money (YFII) has lost the most value – 10%. Uniswap’s governance token UNI follows (-9%) 

Stablecoins grew almost 10X to $20 billion

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, was down Friday trading around $344 and slipping 2% in 24 hours.  

The total market capitalization of stablecoins has grown from $2.6 billion in 2019 to $20 billion by September this year. USDT (Tether) at $16 billion leads the pack with USDC in second at $2.5 billion followed by TUSD with a $507 million market cap.

Traditional markets: 

  • September Disappoints. Last month’s 3.9% decline in the S&P 500 snapped a string of five monthly gains in a row. In September, energy was the weakest sector, with a decline of 14.6%; materials was the strongest, with a 1.1% gain.
  • Back on Track. The major U.S. stock indexes rose 1% to 2%, snapping a string of four consecutive weekly declines. At Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 6% from its early September record high, the NASDAQ was down 8%, and the Dow was 4% lower.
  • Coronavirus Relief. The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday narrowly passed a Democratic bill that proposes a $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package. However, the bill failed to win backing from House Republicans, and prospects in the Republican-led Senate remained uncertain. 
  • Oil Slipping. A recent modest run-up in crude oil prices stalled, as U.S. crude fell about 8% for the week, trading at around $37 per barrel on Friday. Soft demand for transportation fuels is one of the key factors that has recently weighed on broader oil consumption, putting pressure on prices.
  • 6 month Surge.  The performance of the NASDAQ from April through September was the index’s best two-quarter result since 2000, while the S&P 500’s performance was the best since 2009. The NASDAQ surged 45% over the past six months, while S&P 500 gained more than 26%.
  • Earnings Worries.  With earnings season just around the corner, expectations are low, but not as low as they were a few weeks ago. On average, analysts surveyed by FactSet are expecting third-quarter profits of companies in the S&P 500 to drop by 21% compared with the same period a year earlier. That’s down slightly from the 22% decline that had been forecast in early September. 

Philip Tam

Co-founder & CEO

Sources/Reference

OSL, coindesk, CoinMarketCap, Coincodex, Cointelegraph

John Hancock Investment, Bloomberg

Crypto Eclipses Gold as Top Asset in 2020 on DeFi Bloom

The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index gained more than 60% in 2020, overtaking gold, equities, bonds and commodities. This was driven higher primarily by the surge in Ethereum which in turn was caused by the increased adoption of decentralized finance, or DeFi. 

DeFi creates financial functions onto digital ledgers called blockchains, allowing people to lend or borrow funds and earn interest in a savings-like account without the need for traditional intermediaries like banks. Many DeFi applications are run on the Ethereum blockchain.

Ahead of the Pack

A gauge of cryptocurrencies outperformed other assets so far in 2020

DeFi collateral levels have reached $9 billion from less than $700 million at the start of the year, according to Fasset, which operates a blockchain-based marketplace for infrastructure investment.

Crypto markets have done well during the Covid-19 crisis partly because Bitcoin becomes a repository like gold, when risks multiply, according to Marc Fleury, chief executive officer of crypto asset management and financial technology firm Two Prime.

“The risk is bigger being outside of crypto, rather than being in and losing.” Antoni Trenchev, CEO and Managing Partner of Nexo on Bloomberg

In an interview with Bobby Lee, the former CEO of Bitcoin exchange BTCC, predicted that the flippening would take place within nine years and Bitcoin will shoot immensely. Flippening refers to a future event that will see one cryptocurrency (Ethereum) dominating Bitcoin in terms of market capitalization. Nevertheless, in this scenario, Lee used it to mean that Bitcoin will overtake Gold.

Lee went further to point out that the Bitcoin deflationary value will help it reach a high market capitalization when compared to gold. 

Skeptics are unconvinced, arguing crypto markets have a history of wild swings and are merely riding a tide of liquidity. Cracks are also appearing in the hype around DeFi, suggesting it isn’t as decentralized as touted.

The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index tumbled nearly 10% over the past week as the pandemic hurt sentiment across a number of assets, highlighting the risk of volatility. 

Overall, investor interest in Crypto is increasing as derivatives markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum expand. Bitcoin’s technology continues to mature and the cryptocurrency continues to have an inverse correlation with USD. This is crucial since Gold’s correlation with USD will go on to exist, irrespective of Bitcoin’s increasing dominance and price, making the latter an ideal alternative investment.

Philip Tam

Co-founder & CEO

29 September 2020.

Sources/Reference

Bloomberg, Cryptowisser, Ambcrypto

市埸觀察 – 26日 9月 2020年


BTC 24 小時平均價: $11,179
BTC 24 小時最低價: $10,899
BTC: + 0.06%

亞洲市埸情況回顧

➲ 從XMR和DOT社群中出來的賣家支撐了大部份山寨幣的資金交易, 大部份交易的交易額為正常規模。除此之外 , 在沒有特別泡沫的情況下,BTC仍是最好的投資目標。

➲ 與上週相類似, 本週買入與賣出比例為79-21.隨著每週的交易的結束,從市埸參與度分析,本週買方與賣方的交易數量跌至一個月以來的低點。

歐洲市埸情況回顧

➲ 由賣方主導的 BTC 二級市埸平價流動,反映出市埸廣泛的沉寞和缺乏鼓舞類信息.因為買方需求跌至2週以來的新低,賣方以接近 3:1多於買方人數。

➲ 本週交易量環比下降 65% ,本週85%的交易是由賣方賣出產生。

美洲市埸情況回顧

➲ 星期五發生的雙向BTC交易主要,其中大部份買方是對ETH、DOT和部份小規模的山寨幣感興趣;買賣雙方在BTC上的低迷表現導至交易量只有上週的70%。

比特幣價格分析比特幣跌破長期上升趨勢指標線在波動振盪中我們明天是否仍期待著 $10,000 一個比特幣的到來?

上升趨勢線下方的實點可能是第一個表明存在一些實質性的信號,未來比特幣的價格振盪,可能會跌至低於5位數的 $10,000 。發生於昨天(25日)的價格下跌,比特幣巳經跌至 EMA的 100天支撐點

Read more about Bitcoin Price Analysis . . .

 DeFi 

DeFi幣 首次與UNISWAP的空投幣相結合使得許多人爭搶免費的贈幣。雖然DEFI的總市值有所回落,但DEFI幣仍然鎖定在網絡中,因此對天文數字一樣的巨大未來收益仍在市埸中期待著。

除非出現第二層的解決方案和大量的子網絡協議,否則80億美元的總鎖定值將是阻力點。

不幸的是,過於真實的收益率導致大量的騙子產生,騙子們試圖利用這種淘金熱和市埸狂熱來獲利,巳經連帶著發生在了另一種DEFI協議中,市埸並沒有採取任何措施阻止資金湧入項目,從而使得該DEFI協議項目獲得360萬美元。傳統市埸情況回顧:

科技股週五推動華爾街走高,推動三大股指上漲;是自20198月以來最長的連續跌幅後,道瓊斯指數和標準普爾500指數第四次沖高,漲幅+1%。道瓊斯指數升1.34%, 標準普爾500指數升1.60%, 納斯達克指標升2.26%

  • 泛歐洲STOXX 600 指數跌0.10%,而MSCI的股票指數全球範圍內增長了+1.03%; 與新冠病毒相關的第二波封鎖使情緒受壓,本週五的強表現不足以防止全球指數在一周內下跌-2%
  • 由於10年期美國國債收益率在5個基點範圍內波動,美國國債幾乎沒有變化;一周的大部份時間裡,基準10年期國債下跌-7個基點,收益率為0.6561%, 比周四下降了0.664%
  • 黃金有望實現近兩個月來的最大單週跌幅;疲弱的不只黃金還有白銀,自周一以來下跌 -14% ,錄得六個月以來最大的單週跌幅。
  • 中國數據顯示,八月份的複蘇更為廣泛和強勁;新冠危機以來零售額首次年同比增長 0.5%

Philip Tam

Co-founder & CEO

Sources/Reference

Kraken, OSL, coindesk, Defi Pulse, CoinMarketCap, Coincodex, CryptoSlate John Hancock Investment, Bloomberg

Market Watch – 26 September 2020

BTC 24 Hr High $11,179
BTC 24 Hr Low $10,899
BTC     + 0.06%

Asia

  • A renewal of altcoin interest with the bulk of flow coming from sellers of XMR and DOT, albeit in relatively modest size. Other than alts, the desk was a better buyer of BTC amid absent buyers. 
  • Similarly to last week, this week finished with a 79-21 split between buyers & sellers. Weekly buy-side and sell-side volumes dipped to a 1-month low among a loss of interest from market participants as the week progressed.

Europe

  • Sub-par 2-way flow in BTC that was sell-side led and widely reflective of a dreary and uninspiring market. Sellers outpaced buyers by a 3:1 split as buy-side demand dipped to a 2-week low.
  • The week concluded with gross trading volumes falling a whopping -65% week-over-week and sellers making up 85% of the week’s activity. 

Americas

  • Friday brought routine 2-way BTC flow with modest buy-side interest in ETH, DOT, and a handful of small-cap altcoins. A lackluster showing on behalf of both buyers and sellers resulted in BTC buyers comprising of more than 70% of the week’s activity.

Bitcoin Price Analysis – BTC Breaks Long Term Rising Trend Line – Are We About To Head Beneath $10,000 With Increased Volatility Incoming Tomorrow?

The break beneath the rising trend line could be the first signal that there is some substantial turbulence ahead for Bitcoin, which could see the price heading beneath the 5-figure level and collapse beneath $10,000. During yesterday’s price drop, Bitcoin had also dropped beneath the 100-day EMA support. 

Read more about Bitcoin Price Analysis . . .

DeFi

DeFi coins have had their first correction dovetailing with the Uniswap airdrop that had everyone scrambling for their freebies. And while there has indeed been a pullback in the total value locked in cyberspace, the astronomical yields are still there to be farmed. 

Expect to see a myriad of second layer solutions and the substitute protocols to try and steal the eight billion dollar prize. 

Unfortunately the too-good-to-be-true yields are giving birth to plenty of scammers as more opportunists try to cash in on this gold rush and euphoria in the market. The tape bombs have done nothing to deter capital flocking to the space as we hear of yet another DeFi protocol successfully raising $3.6mn

Traditional markets: 

  • Tech stocks pushed Wall Street higher on Friday and sent the 3 major indexes up more than +1%, though the Dow and the S&P 500 finished in the red for the fourth consecutive week – the longest losing streak since August 2019. The Dow Jones rose +1.34%, the S&P 500 gained +1.60%, and the Nasdaq added +2.26% on the session.
  • The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell -0.10% while the MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained +1.03%; however, Friday’s strong performance wasn’t enough to prevent the global index from falling -2% for the week as concerns of a second wave of coronavirus-related lockdowns weighed on sentiment.
  • Treasuries were little changed as the 10-year yield traded in a 5-basis-point range for much of the week; the benchmark 10-year note fell -7bps for a yield of 0.6561%, down from 0.664% on Thursday.
  • Gold was on track for its biggest weekly decline in close to 2 months. Weakness this week was not only in gold, but silver too. Silver tumbled -14% since Monday, registering its largest weekly loss in more than six months. 
  • Chinese data show broader and stronger recovery in August. Retail sales expanded 0.5%YoY, for the first time since the crisis. 

Philip Tam

Co-founder & CEO

Sources/Reference

Kraken, OSL, coindesk, Defi Pulse, CoinMarketCap, Coincodex, CryptoSlate

John Hancock Investment, Bloomberg

Market Watch – 19 September 2020

BTC 24 Hr High $11,179
BTC 24 Hr Low $10,899
BTC     + 0.06%

Traditional markets: 

  • Slight decline. The major U.S. stock indexes fell for the third week in a row, retreating again from the record highs that the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ achieved early this month. The latest week’s decline was much smaller than the previous week’s pullback.
  • Near-zero rate outlook. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signalled that it expects to keep its benchmark rate near zero for at least three more years. All 17 Fed officials who made projections said they expect to keep rates near zero at least through next year, and 13 projected rates would stay there through 2023.
  • Oil recovery. After two weeks of declines, U.S. crude oil prices recovered ground, climbing back to around $41 per barrel. Much of the week’s gain came on Wednesday, after the government reported that U.S. crude oil supplies fell to the lowest level in five months. 
  • Europe. Investors focused on negotiations over the EU’s proposed 750 billion-euro ($840 billion) program to help economies rebound from lockdowns, which helped send the Stoxx 600 Index up 0.6%.
  • Asia. Nikkei 225 ended the day flat, in the green 0.18% as concerns about company earnings in the face of the coronavirus pandemic prompted investor caution.

Bitcoin has lost its market momentum. Meanwhile, the amount of cryptocurrency locked in decentralized exchange Uniswap was nearly doubled on Friday.

  • Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $10,867 as of 20:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Slipping 0.42% over the previous 24 hours.
  • Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $10,812-$11,039
  • BTC below its 10-day and 50-day moving averages, a bearish signal for market technicians.

Bitcoin was only able to eclipse the $11,000 level briefly Friday before dropping to as low as $10,812 on spot exchanges such as Coinbase. 

Markets are looking weak on drying-up liquidity on exchanges while BTC hardly managed to reach back above the $11,000 level and couldn’t sustain it,” said Jean Baptiste Pavageau, partner at trading firm ExoAlpha. 

Indeed, major USD/BTC exchange volumes are looking feeble, with Friday tallying a $211 million total so far while daily averages the past month have been $364 million. 

Rupert Douglas, head of institutional sales at crypto brokerage Koine, is concerned stock markets are in for a correction, potentially hurting crypto as investors look to unload risky assets. 

“I think equities are headed lower and if that happens digital assets will get sucked down, too,” Douglas told CoinDesk. “The tech shares are too frothy,” he added

Philip Tam

Co-founder & CEO

Sources/Reference

Kraken, OSL, coindesk, Deribit, CoinMarketCap, Coincodex, Binance

John Hancock Investment, Bloomberg

Global Economic Outlook & Whisky Market Update – August 2020

 Global Economic Outlook

 The impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic has extended over more than a quarter. While Asian and some European countries appear to be stabilizing, the situation elsewhere in places such as the United States, Brazil, Russia, India, and Africa, are not experiencing much improvement. A second wave of infections has erupted as many countries were too eager to restart their economies, leading to circumstances that are un- likely to improve without the emergence of a vaccine.

With the circulation of goods and resources inhibited by strict quarantine policies and international travel restrictions, corporate profits are not expected to perform well this year. While there may be some recovery on some aspects, profitability will be far less than levels prior to the virus outbreak. However, the financial markets reflect a different story. After the market crash that took place in March 2020, most asset classes have made a substantial recovery, as of June 30th 2020 (see charts below). With the stimulation of unlimited quantitative easing and ultra-low interest rates, many markets have displayed aggressive recoveries. Thus, it can be seen that the current stock markets do not reflect the actual economic situation and is instead dictated by capital flows and speculation.

Global Stock market rebound

crude oil

commodities

 Precious metals

The recently reported low bond yields in conjunction with ultra-low interest rates have encouraged borrow- ing. Over the past ten years following the 2008 financial crisis, currency inflation has been of little concern to people in Asia and Europe. However, the latest monetary policies have introduced an excess of liquidity circulating in the economy which will eventually lead to the buying-up of scarce assets, forcibly propping up asset prices. Since the economy has not fully recovered and corporate profits cannot justify market values, any unexpected market movements may trigger drastic changes as the market adjusts to better represent true asset values. However, the cash from liquidating one asset must eventually flow into another asset, contrib- uting to near-term market volatility. During such turbulent times, asset allocation is crucial for anyone who wishes to protect from losses due to market fluctuations.

Whisky Market

Source: Rare Whisky 101

In contrast to the stock market in March 2020, the whisky market has been relatively stable. While stock pric- es have plummeted, whisky prices did not undergo any substantial ups or downs. Overall, the whisky market has grown about 4.48% in the first half of 2020, with performances varying between distilleries and vintages. At the time of writing, distilleries are still closed in Scotland which marks the fourth month of zero produc- tion and no bottles filled. With a general lack of automation in the production processes and aging industry workforce (average age of 55 years), it is infeasible for the industry to make up for the lost whisky production. As a result of such shortages in the 2020 production cycle, the price of whisky will likely rise. When liquidity begins to flow into the market, whisky as an investment asset looks optimistic for the second half of the year.

Whisky Market News

A 1995 Macallan cask sold for HK$2.48 million according to the Sotheby’s auction results on June 23rd, 2020. With reference to this result, Macallan casks belonging to the fund of a similar vintage and finish have poten- tially appreciated up to 20%.

Source: Rare Whisky 101

The Macallan distillery is considered the standard by industry professionals, its market performance often serves as an indicator for the health of the whisky market. With the guidance of Investment Adviser, renowned whisky expert Mr Howard Cai, the fund is also able to capitalize on market opportunities. For instance, during a brief period of price decline in January 2020, the fund successfully expanded its inventory.

Due to intense demand, Macallan casks have not been sold to the public since 1999. As a result, the existing Macallan casks on the market are increasingly difficult to acquire, giving the whisky its exceptional price per- formance.

According to the bar chart above, the average price of whisky bottles have been steadily rising since the bull market earlier this year, through the novel coronavirus outbreak. Although there may be emerging distiller- ies in Scotland, the industry cannot compensate for the loss in productivity from the past year. While some may say production capacity can be boosted to meet the increasing demand, this is not the case due to the nature of production. In this situation, the only solution for distilleries is to shorten the maturing period  and no longer display the vintage. For example, distilleries that have traditionally released 12-year matured whiskies into the market may choose to release 8 or 10-year product instead. Furthermore, the product is not legally recognized as whisky unless it has been aged for at least 3 years. Evidently, the production of whisky is not as straightforward as its counterparts, such as wines. In contrast, wines can be harvested annually and sold immediately to cover operating costs. Altogether, limited production capacity and labour costs also add to the difficulty in expansion for established whisky distilleries. This imbalance in supply and demand will have a prolonged impact on the pricing of higher vintage barrels.

International whisky news outlet Whisky Intelligence reports on Investment Advisor Mr Howard Cai’s in- volvement in the fund. Notably, the report highlights Mr Cai as the man behind the first independent single malt whisky bottling company in China. The press release further explains how Mr Cai has successfully en- tered the greater China market by offering his collection of unique whiskies and helping Chinese wine lovers discover a whole a new realm of tastes.

“85-89.5: very good to excellent whiskies, definitely worth buying”

“94-97.5: Superstar whiskies that give us all a reason to live”

In his 2020 edition of the world-famous “Whisky Bible”, Jim Murray commended two of Howard Cai Selected Whiskies, the “Howard Cai SelectedBraeval” (86 Points), and the “Howard Cai Selected Ben Nevis 19 Years” (94 Points). For reference, the two Howard Cai Selected bottles scored higher than Macallan’s notable original series, demonstrating the strict criteria under which the bottles are assessed and the distinction of which the bottles have achieved.